Saxo Bank has released on 8 December 2020 its 10 Outrageous Predictions for 2021. The predictions focus on a series of unlikely but underappreciated events which, if they were to occur, could send shockwaves across financial markets:
- Amazon “buys” Cyprus
- Germany bails out France
- Blockchain tech kills fake news
- China’s new digital currency inspires tectonic shift in capital flows
- Revolutionary fusion design catapults humanity into energy abundance
- Universal basic income decimates big cities
- Disruption dividend creates Citizens Technology Fund
- A successful Covid-19 vaccine kills companies
- Sun shines on silver, which sizzles on solar panel demand
- Next-generation tech supercharges frontier and emerging markets
While these predictions do not constitute Saxo’s official market forecasts for 2021, they represent a warning against the potential misallocation of risk among investors who might typically assign just a one percent chance of these events materialising. It’s an exercise in considering the full extent of what is possible, even if not necessarily probable, and particularly relevant in the context of this year’s unexpected Covid-19 crisis. Inevitably the outcomes that prove the most disruptive (and therefore outrageous) are those that are a surprise to consensus.
Commenting on this year’s Outrageous Predictions, Chief Investment Officer at Saxo Bank, Steen Jakobsen said:
“Covid-19 has accelerated all major super-trends. A structural shift in the labour market is at the top of the list but at the same time, the total economic pie will be even larger – even per capita. Universal Basic Income is coming, and this will lead to a new way of living and new priorities. It will also require a new way to redistribute the economic pie, without which we would see a self-limiting vicious concentration of all resources into the hands of monopoly and rentier incumbents. One key enabler of that future is a rise in energy available per capita, with almost no negative impact on our natural resources, and with sufficient extra output available to power the high-end technology systems like advanced AI and quantum computing. This would bring us close to ending cancer, preventing the fall-out from future pandemic risks, and dealing with fake news through super-charged blockchain technology.”
The Outrageous Predictions 2021 publication is available here with headline summary to the MediaMotorEurope project related trend below:
3. Blockchain tech kills fake news
In 2021, the mounting threat of disinformation and the erosion of trust in even well-established news providers reaches a critical level, demanding an industry response. Major media companies and social platforms are forced to impose new countermeasures against fabricated and misleading news. The enabling technology is a massive shared blockchain network for news content, which allows distribution of news in an immutable way with a validity check of both the content and the source. With a shared ledger structure, any content alterations would immediately be visible to everyone, and every news item is always traceable to its original source, suppressing misinformation that other sources can’t verify.
Companies like Twitter and Facebook invest heavily in this blockchain tech, motivated first and foremost by self-preservation as the threats of regulatory oversight we’ve seen in recent years become white hot. Alternative news sites peddling conspiracy theories like QAnon, disinformation about the coronavirus pandemic, falsified evidence of election fraud and more will suddenly become unavailable on major platforms. Reality wins, and echo chambers lose.
Trade: Buy Verizon, IBM, and social media companies.
